The numbers
Ice Fishing odds and probability
Hit rate per segment, and what that compounds into over a session. The calculator below does the binomial arithmetic on the published split.
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Hit rate per segment
| Segment | Count | Per spin | Once in | Expected per 90 rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaf 1 | 23 | 43.40% | 2.3 | 39.1 |
| Leaf 2 | 23 | 43.40% | 2.3 | 39.1 |
| Lil’ Blues | 4 | 7.55% | 13.3 | 6.8 |
| Big Oranges | 2 | 3.77% | 26.5 | 3.4 |
| Huge Reds | 1 | 1.89% | 53.0 | 1.7 |
| Any fish | 7 | 13.21% | 7.6 | 11.9 |
Run the numbers yourself
Probability calculator
Independent spins, published hit rates. Pick a segment and a number of rounds.
- At least once
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- Not once
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- Expected hits
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- 50% chance after
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Reading the numbers
Two things surprise people here.
The first is how often the expected number of hits fails to arrive. Over ninety rounds Huge Reds is expected 1.7 times, but the chance of seeing it zero times is about 18%. Roughly one hour in five contains no Huge Reds at all, which is entirely normal and not evidence of anything.
The second is how long the wait can be before a 50% chance accumulates. For Huge Reds that point comes at 37 rounds — less than the 53 the hit rate suggests, because the chances compound. The intuition that a segment is “due” after fifty-three rounds is wrong in both directions: the wheel has no memory, and the compounding runs faster than most people expect.
Neither figure changes the house edge. Return by bet is here.